The River Card

This kind of title is pretty much a loaded question.  Whether or not the industry meets expectations depends on what you expect from the industry.

Plunkett Research Ltd. lists some statistics that would ring the "good news" bell for many industry residents.

Plunkett states that the industry, globally, is set to nearly double by 2011.  Even in the crowded US marketplace, they estimate that 900 million handsets will be sold in 2008. Taking into consideration that approximately 79% of Americans all ready subscribe to a wireless plan, the business will remain the healthiest of all the consumer tech verticals. 

Much of the global growth will take place in Asia, with India and China taking the lead.  While many would say that this has limited effect on the US market, I would disagree.

A larger consumer base means that many more consumers that the industry needs to satisfy in products and services.  The handsets will continue to evolve with technology and bandwidth, and with them the services offered and the corresponding revenue opportunities.

Portio Research is a UK firm that offers a free factbook on global statistics for the cellular industry.  They have a very extensive article on the progression of SMS, it's continued growth, and the differing opinions on the progress MMS has made.

The Insight Research Corp. sees continued fixed mobile convergence.  In other words, people are dropping their wireline service in favor of using their cellular phones as their primary line.  As such, rates will continue to drop and become more competitive as base services with more revenue being made up with ancilliary services.  These services will continue to become more diverse as carriers strive to differentiate themselves.

The chief thing for any retailer to remember is that as the industry continues to change, retailers must rise to the challenge and keep pace with those changes.  Revenue streams and structures will not be static, so keeping your eye on the ball will be paramount to success.

WiMax seems to be gaining a near mythical status in what people are expecting of it.  But what exactly is it?  Will it affect you?

Best to explain it first.  Many people know what WiFi is, but in case you don't:

(WIreless-FIdelity) A logo from the Wi-Fi Alliance that certifies network devices comply with the IEEE 802.11 wireless Ethernet standards. (Thank you to PC Magazine for this riveting and insightful description!)

For those of you who didn't quite get that (including me), let's go to our friends at Wikipedia:

Wi-Fi (pronounced wye-fye, IPA: /ˈwaɪfaɪ/) is a wireless technology brand owned by the Wi-Fi Alliance intended to improve the interoperability of wireless local area network products based on the IEEE 802.11 standards. Common applications for Wi-Fi include Internet and VoIP phone access, gaming, and network connectivity for consumer electronics such as televisions, DVD players, and digital cameras.

Now, WiMax is:

(World Interoperability for Microwave Access, Inc., www.wimaxforum.org) An organization founded in 2001 that promotes the IEEE 802.16 wireless broadband standard and provides certification for devices for compliant devices.  (Hmmm, PC Magazine again, I should've known better...)

Can Wikipedia help again?

WiMAX, the Worldwide Interoperability for Microwave Access, is a telecommunications technology aimed at providing wireless data over long distances in a variety of ways, from point-to-point links to full mobile cellular type access. It is based on the IEEE 802.16 standard, which is also called WirelessMAN. 

Better, but let's get down to it.  WiFi is for use between devices and over a distance measured in feet.  WiMax is for use between points and over a distance measured in miles.

Devices you'd use Wifi with?  Laptops, printers, your Wii, phones, etc.  What would you use WiMax for?  Network connectivity to full cellular access.  Now you see why a WiMax article is on a cellular telephony related blog!)

In my thinking, any company making it's living from prepaid phone services is watching WiMax with great interest, especially because of the limited and usually very urban footprint WiMax is being looked at to operate in.  MetroPCS must be watching with great interest given their expansion in the last couple of years.  For companies like it, it may feel the same effect that low-carb diets had on Krispy Creme!

To date, most of the telcos have waited on the sidelines publicly, but Sprint and Clearwire seem to be the closest to making a deal to make WiMax a household term.  Even though a deal fell through between the two in the fall, many industry analysts feel it is only a matter of time before they work out the details.  By making a deal a reality, Sprint hedges its bet within the emerging technology and positions itself to be a frontrunner.

Stay tuned as other players come on in!